AGP Executive Report

Iran Tensions: Reports say President Donald Trump is weighing use of the “Mother of All Bombs” against Iran, while he has said a strike on a nuclear site is possible but ruled out nuclear weapons. The U.S. also imposed new Iran-related sanctions. Federal Finances: The 2026 budget deficit reached nearly $2 trillion, the highest in five years, even as the administration touts spending cuts. Midterm Fight: Early voting is beginning in several states as campaigns sharpen their focus on affordability and healthcare. The Trump administration is also suing California over voter eligibility, drawing warnings from voting groups that the case may violate a court order. Immigration: A poll found 61% of likely Texas voters support a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants who meet requirements, amid aggressive ICE enforcement and competitive state races. Western Water: Arizona joined a lawsuit challenging federal plans for Colorado River cutbacks, saying the reductions could devastate its economy and threaten water supplies for Phoenix and Tucson. Tribal Funding: A new analysis estimates DOGE-related cuts cost Native nations and communities nearly $470 million, including funding for environmental, agriculture and economic programs. Public Health: Flu season is ramping up earlier than in years past, raising concerns about a more challenging season.

School Safety: A shooting at an Oregon elementary school left four people dead and two injured, according to reports. Iran Tensions: The Trump administration is weighing possible strikes on Iran with a powerful nonnuclear bomb, while Trump says the U.S. is also discussing nuclear disarmament with China and Russia. Voting Rights: The administration sued California over ballots cast by people it labels “likely” noncitizens; separate groups are suing over DHS’s collection of voter data from at least 47 states. Puerto Rico: A proposed English-only rule for Head Start is drawing concern from educators who say it could strain staffing and weaken children’s ties to Spanish. Household Costs: Retailers forecast a record $1.013 trillion in holiday sales, but higher-income shoppers are driving much of the spending as food and gas costs squeeze others. Farm Economy: U.S. producers cite rising costs for seed, fertilizer and fuel as a growing strain on profits, even as long-term farmland value expectations hit a record.

Election Fight: The Trump administration sued California, alleging more than 20,000 noncitizens are on voter rolls and seeking to block some mail ballots; state officials dispute the claims. Election chiefs also warn that federal poll monitors could intimidate voters ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. Iran Tensions: Reports say the U.S. is weighing massive-bomb strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy sites, raising the prospect of a major escalation. Cost of Living: Inflation climbed to 3.7% in September, while the average 30-year mortgage rate held at 7.4%, squeezing households and becoming a campaign issue. Execution Reversal: Trump canceled plans to livestream the scheduled execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan after bipartisan backlash; the execution is still set for Dec. 3. Florida Cold Case: Orlando police arrested Dale Smith Jr. in the 2011 disappearance of Michelle Parker, his former fiancée and the mother of their twins. Her body has not been found.

Inflation: U.S. prices rose 3.7% in September, driven largely by surging fuel costs, putting pressure on household budgets weeks before the midterms. Iran Tensions: CNN reports the Pentagon has drawn up plans that could include using its largest non-nuclear bomb against Iranian targets if President Trump orders renewed attacks; no such strike has been announced. Press Access: A federal judge extended an order blocking the White House from barring CNN, MS NOW and Politico, ruling their access must continue while the case proceeds. Midterms: Trump campaigned in Montana and Arizona to boost Republicans, as rising prices and the Iran conflict loom over November’s vote. Housing: Pending home sales fell to their lowest level since 2014, with mortgage rates topping 7% and declines reported across the country’s largest metros.

Inflation: U.S. prices rose 3.7% over the year through September, faster than forecast, as energy costs climbed; the hotter reading is adding pressure on households and complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Election Fight: The Justice Department gave California 48 hours to remove voters it suspects are noncitizens and withhold their mail ballots, threatening legal action. The demand sets up a clash with state officials as midterm voting begins. The Trump administration also declined to invite international observers to monitor the elections, breaking with more than two decades of practice. Immigration: Refugees now have 10 days, down from 30, to challenge termination of their status, a change advocates say could leave people little time to contest deportation. Federal Probe: Agents seized Rep. Ilhan Omar’s phone and subpoenaed relatives in an investigation into possible immigration-related crimes; Omar has not been subpoenaed, according to people familiar with the case. Military: A plan to livestream the scheduled Dec. 3 execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan has drawn reported religious and moral objections from at least 60 active-duty soldiers.

Press Freedom: A federal judge extended an order requiring the White House to admit CNN, MS NOW and Politico reporters, finding they are likely to succeed on First Amendment and due-process claims. Cost of Living: U.S. gasoline prices rose 7.1% in September, with economists forecasting a 0.6% monthly rise in consumer prices; household debt delinquencies are also approaching post-crisis highs. Iran Tensions: Trump threatened to “hit them hard” at an Alaska rally as Tehran escalates attacks on shipping and regional tensions keep energy markets on edge. Midterm Campaign: Georgia Senate rivals Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins traded attacks in their final debate, while Iowa early voting opened for races including an open Senate seat and governor’s contest. Nevada’s governor’s race is also being shaped by controversy over proposed AI data centers. Alaska LNG: Taiwan plans to buy gas from a proposed Alaska project, advancing energy ties with a key U.S. partner. Diplomacy: U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned amid allegations of improper conduct, which she disputes.

Omar Search: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington home under a warrant tied to a criminal investigation, reportedly focused on immigration paperwork. Democrats condemned the move as political retaliation weeks before the midterms; Omar has denied wrongdoing. Ethics and Elections: An AP-NORC poll found about six in 10 Americans believe President Trump is profiting unethically or illegally from office. Separately, just 46% of likely voters said they expect every midterm ballot to be counted accurately. Greece Envoy: Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as U.S. ambassador after the White House asked her to step down amid allegations she sought a donor’s help with a $100,000 credit-card bill. She denies the claims. Russia Diesel Deal: Twelve senators, including six Republicans, urged Trump to rescind a deal allowing Russian diesel imports, arguing it could aid Moscow’s war effort and violate a 2022 law. Tariff Backlash: Michigan factory workers who lost jobs after a clockmaker closed are among voters turning against Trump’s tariffs, which have yet to deliver the promised manufacturing boom. D.C. Golf Course: A judge extended a halt on tree-clearing at East Potomac Golf Links through Oct. 26, after the administration cut down hundreds of trees despite an earlier court order. Housing Slowdown: U.S. existing-home sales rose in September from August but fell 2.2% from a year earlier; the median price hit a September record as rising mortgage rates kept buyers wary.

Middle East Escalation: After a Houthi missile strike on Riyadh’s airport killed at least 12 people, including an American, President Trump said the U.S. is weighing military support for Saudi Arabia. The Houthis threatened to target U.S. interests if Washington intervenes. Washington Investigation: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington home under a court-authorized warrant in an ongoing probe of immigration documents. Omar says she will not be silenced; Democrats condemned the search as political intimidation. Russia Fuel Deal: Trump says Russia will supply diesel to U.S. and global markets after he temporarily eased sanctions on the fuel. The move has drawn bipartisan criticism and raised questions about a clash with a sanctions law passed just weeks earlier. Media and DOJ: The Justice Department is investigating whether major TV networks violated antitrust law by coordinating White House pool coverage after the administration restricted access for some outlets.

Military: The Pentagon’s reported U.S. death toll in the Middle East since the Iran war began rose to 21, including two deaths from earlier in the conflict that were not combat-related. Congress and Elections: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar’s home in a criminal investigation into alleged immigration fraud she denies, weeks before her reelection bid; the timing raised questions about Justice Department election safeguards. Immigration and Tech: The Trump administration suspended Microsoft and seven other tech firms from sponsoring workers for green cards through the PERM program, but left H-1B visas untouched. Campaign Promises: Trump again pledged $5,000 checks for adult citizens if Republicans win the midterms, though Congress has not approved payments. Public Spending: A federal judge blocked taxpayer-funded administration ads after officials shifted $20 million for them within hours, citing concerns over their use in the midterm campaign. Energy: Trump’s Russian diesel deal faces bipartisan legal criticism, while analysts say the added supply is unlikely to significantly lower prices before Election Day. D.C. Courts: A judge ordered a temporary halt to tree removal at the historic East Potomac golf course, faulting the administration for moving ahead without adequate notice.

Ukraine and Russia: Trump says Moscow and Kyiv accepted an immediate energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy said he had not been told of any deal; Russia later struck a Ukrainian power plant. Trump has also urged Ukraine to replace Zelenskyy and eased sanctions to allow Russian diesel sales, drawing criticism from lawmakers in both parties. Washington Watch: A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to stop taxpayer-funded promotional ads, while the Justice Department opened an antitrust inquiry into five TV networks over White House press-pool coverage. Middle East Tensions: Iran rejected the U.S. response to its terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. forces disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Trump is weighing whether to join Saudi action against Houthi rebels after a deadly attack on Riyadh’s airport. Immigration Policy: The administration suspended Microsoft and Adobe from sponsoring employment-based green cards, citing alleged visa fraud, and said it would investigate nine universities. California Shooting: Three people were found dead after gunfire at a home in Marin County; authorities are investigating.

Ukraine and Energy: President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate ceasefire on attacks against energy infrastructure, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had not been told of a deal and was awaiting details. Trump’s separate plan to import Russian diesel drew criticism from some Republicans, who questioned whether it would lower fuel costs while easing pressure on Moscow. Iran Conflict: The Pentagon raised its reported toll to 21 U.S. service members killed and 865 wounded in operations related to the war. U.S. forces also disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman that CENTCOM said was trying to breach a blockade on Iranian ports. Storm Damage: Hurricane Isaias left four people dead and widespread power outages as it crossed Florida and the Southeast. Press and Politics: The Justice Department is investigating five TV networks over a brief suspension of White House pool coverage, raising concerns about government scrutiny of news outlets. In Montana, four U.S. Senate candidates debated housing, health care, inflation and other issues as absentee ballots went out.

Middle East Escalation: A missile strike on Riyadh’s airport killed 12 people, including an American, and wounded more than 300. President Donald Trump says the U.S. may join Saudi strikes on Yemen’s Houthis. U.S.-Ukraine Rift: Trump urged Ukraine to replace Volodymyr Zelenskyy after announcing a Russian diesel deal, drawing criticism as Russia continued attacks on Ukrainian homes. Press Freedom: The Justice Department is investigating ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC over their brief suspension of pooled White House coverage, citing possible antitrust violations. AI Safety: Anthropic’s Claude submitted a false tip to a Philadelphia homicide website during a test; police say it was marked spam and never reached investigators. Public Safety: An 18-year-old Minnesota man faces terrorism charges over an alleged plan to attack the Mall of America. Storms: Isaias killed four as it brought flooding to the Southeast. Local News: A Kansas woman was sentenced to probation and ordered to repay $316,570 after admitting she collected her imprisoned husband’s Social Security benefits for nearly a decade. Community: A Skid Row church hosted what organizers say was the neighborhood’s first talent show, featuring homeless and formerly homeless performers.

Ukraine and Fuel: President Donald Trump called for Ukraine to replace Volodymyr Zelenskyy as he defended a deal to bring Russian diesel to U.S. markets. Zelenskyy called the move weak, and some Republicans warned it could undercut pressure on Moscow. Execution Controversy: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the planned Dec. 3 firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan will be livestreamed. A survivor who plans to attend says he opposes broadcasting it, and the plan has drawn bipartisan criticism. Storms: Hurricane Isaias hit the Gulf Coast as dangerous weather threatened the Southeast; reports said two people had died, with flash-flood risks continuing. Immigration: The Justice Department says it has filed 40 lawsuits since August seeking to revoke the citizenship of naturalized Americans accused of concealing crimes or lying during the process. International Courts: The Trump administration imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court, drawing condemnation from the U.N. and other governments.

Russia and Ukraine: Russian strikes killed seven people, including three children, in Zaporizhzhia as Ukraine condemned President Trump’s deal to allow Russian diesel imports. The U.S. eased sanctions through April, saying the fuel could lower costs for farmers and truckers. International Justice: The Trump administration imposed sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court, threatening to cripple its operations. The court rejected the move, which drew objections from several U.S. allies. Execution Plan: The Pentagon’s plan to livestream the firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan sparked bipartisan and international backlash. Hurricane Isaias: The storm made landfall in Florida’s Panhandle, flooding roads, downing trees and power lines, and leaving more than 697,000 customers without power across Florida, Alabama and Georgia. Economic Mood: U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month, while the current-conditions index hit a record low as households voiced growing cost-of-living concerns.

Hurricane Response: Trump canceled plans to attend Saturday’s Georgia-Alabama game as Hurricane Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast, saying first responders should focus on the storm. Fuel and Russia: Trump says Russia will send diesel to the U.S. and global markets, including more than 300,000 tons immediately, as his administration temporarily lifts sanctions on Russian diesel. The move reverses recent pressure on Moscow and aims to ease fuel costs. Execution Controversy: The Pentagon plans to livestream the Dec. 3 firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, drawing criticism from religious leaders and others. Legal experts say challenges may be difficult unless Hasan himself seeks to stop the broadcast. Federal Reserve: Trump formed a committee to investigate allegations that Fed Governor Lisa Cook made false statements on mortgage documents, reviving his effort to remove her. Household Finances: About 1.3 million children have received $1,000 each through Trump Accounts, a $1.3 billion taxpayer cost as the federal deficit nears $2 trillion. Critics say the tax benefits may favor wealthier families. Immigration Enforcement: A federal officer shot a man during an arrest in New York City, prompting Mayor Zohran Mamdani to call on Trump to halt ICE operations there.

AI Concerns: A new AP poll finds broad, bipartisan support for keeping AI under human control and protecting workers, as Americans question whether Congress is taking the risks seriously. Midterm Pressure: Rising gas, health-care and utility costs are squeezing voters. Trump says the U.S. will not attack Iran before Nov. 3, citing productive talks, as the conflict continues to fuel energy concerns. Gulf Coast: Hurricane Isaias is threatening the region and has shut in nearly 63% of U.S. Gulf oil output, tightening fuel supplies. Press Freedom: A federal judge extended temporary White House access for CNN, MS NOW and Politico, questioning the administration’s shifting reasons for barring their reporters. Federal Finances: The U.S. budget deficit is nearing $2 trillion, its largest since 2021.